Larry Summers in the Washington Post
Posted on July 29th, 2008 in Uncategorized | 11 Comments »
The former Harvard president continues to show that Harvard is paying him $400k or so a year for doing virtually nothing other than campaign for a return to Washington in an Obama administration.
(Whether that’s a reasonable investment for Harvard is, actually, an interesting question.)
In this Washington Post editorial*, Summers argues that it’s good for the government to bail out Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, although there’s room for argument, but “no one should suppose, however, that the issue is satisfactorily resolved, even for the short term.”
The editorial proposes a plan under which the government would place strict operating conditions on these government-sponsored enterprises, or GSEs.
…The government would operate the GSEs as public corporations for several years. They would then be in a position to extend credit where appropriate to support resolution of the housing crisis. Once the crisis has passed, the federal government would divide their functions into government and private components, the latter of which would be sold off in multiple pieces. The proceeds could be used to fund the low-income housing support activity that was previously mandated to the GSEs.
I don’t know enough about this issue to evaluate Summers’ plan. What strikes me, though, is how much better he seems speaking out about economic issues than about social issues generally. Is that because he knows less about social issues than he does economic ones…or because I (and much of the public) know (or think we know) more about social issues than we do about how the economy works?
___________________________________________________________________________________________________
* This is actually Summers’ regular column from the FT, which, somehow, he placed in the Washington Post as well. Hmmmm….that’s sort of unusual for both organizations. What does it mean? Probably that Summers really wanted it in the Post…..
11 Responses
7/29/2008 11:28 am
“Is that because he knows less about social issues than he does economic ones…or because I (and much of the public) know [] more about social issues than we do about [economics]?”
My dear fellow,
Since all expertise is relative, these questions are formally identical.
Why end a post with a question if you don’t really have a question? I will decline to do that here.
Standing Jackass (who is usually right though)
7/29/2008 1:33 pm
Oh, and did we mention that Raines served as head of the Harvard Overseers?
Franklin Delano Raines (born January 14, 2024 in Seattle, Washington) is the former chairman and chief executive officer of Fannie Mae who served as White House budget director under President Bill Clinton.
The son of a Seattle janitor [2], Raines graduated from Harvard University, Harvard Law School; and Magdalen College, Oxford University as a Rhodes Scholar. He served in the Carter Administration as associate director for economics and government in the Office of Management and Budget and assistant director of the White House Domestic Policy Staff from 1977 to 1979. Then he joined Lazard Freres and Co., where he worked for 11 years and became a general partner. In 1991 he became Fannie’s Mae’s Vice Chairman, a post he left in 1996 in order to join the Clinton Administration as the Director of the U.S. Office of Management and Budget, where he served until 1998. In 1999, he returned to Fannie Mae as CEO, “the first black man to head a Fortune 500 company.”[1]
On December 21, 2023 Raines accepted what he called “early retirement” [3] from his position as CEO while U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission investigators continued to investigate alleged accounting irregularities. He is accused by The Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO), the regulating body of Fannie Mae, of abetting widespread accounting errors, which included the shifting of losses so senior executives, such as himself, could earn large bonuses [4].
In 2006, the OFHEO announced a suit against Raines in order to recover some or all of the $50 million in payments made to Raines based on the overstated earnings [5] initially estimated to be $9 billion but have been announced as 6.3 billion.[2].
Civil charges were filed against Raines and two other former executives by the OFHEO in which the OFHEO sought $110 million in penalties and $115 million in returned bonuses from the three accused.[6] On April 18, 2008, the government announced a settlement with Raines together with J. Timothy Howard, Fannie’s former chief financial officer, and Leanne G. Spencer, Fannie’s former controller. The three executives agreed to pay fines totaling about $3 million, which will be paid by Fannie’s insurance policies. Raines also agreed to donate the proceeds from the sale of $1.8 million of his Fannie stock and to give up stock options. The stock options however have no value. Raines also gave up an estimated $5.3 million of “other benefits” said to be related to his pension and foregone bonuses.[7]
An editorial in The Wall Street Journal called it a “paltry settlement” which allowed Raines and the other two executives to “keep the bulk of their riches.” [8] In 2003 alone, Raines’s compensation was over $20 million.[3]
A statement issued by Raines said of the consent order, “is consistent with my acceptance of accountability as the leader of Fannie Mae and with my strong denial of the allegations made against me by OFHEO.”[4]
In a settlement with OFHEO and the Securities and Exchange Commission, Fannie paid a record $400 million civil fine. Fannie, which is the largest American financier and guarantor of home mortgages, also agreed to make changes in its corporate culture and accounting procedures and ways of managing risk. [9]
In June 2008 Wall Street Journal reported that Franklin Raines was one of several politicians who received below market rates loans at Countrywide Financial because the corporation considered the officeholders “FOA’s”-“Friends of Angelo” (Countrywide Chief Executive Angelo Mozilo). He received loans for over $3 million while CEO of Fannie Mae. [5]
7/29/2008 1:35 pm
Dear Mr. Jackass,
Allow me to paraphrase your thinly veiled comment…..
“I’m smarter than you, Richard.”
If you reread his questions and quit thinking about showing him up, you’ll see his point.
7/29/2008 1:37 pm
It should have been noted that the source was Wiki.
7/29/2008 2:20 pm
0
7/29/2008 5:32 pm
Dear Anonymous,
Thank you for the challenge. I did some reflecting, and briefly considered the thought that my point might not hold up (i.e., that you might be entirely right in calling me out for saying nothing and just posturing). In the shower I tried to figure out how best to re-express my point, which I think turns out to be solid and still interesting, albeit more subtle to explain than I had first thought.
Bear with me.
Suppose we choose some numbers. Let J (for Jowl) represent Larry Summers. So let’s call SJ Larry Summers’s (expressible) expertise on social issues. Let’s call EJ his ditto on economic issues.
Then let’s choose U for us — society at large, on average. Let’s call SU the society’s average expertise on social issues, and EU our average expertise on economic issues.
So we draw two spectra — one for economic knowledge and one for social knowledge. Presumably normal curves could then be drawn above these axes to indicate the distribution of the population in terms of such expertise, IF (and this, I intend to argue, is a big if) a scale could be agreed upon, so we could know where to put the hash marks indicating one, two and three standard deviations…..
Now suppose that we set SU and EU both equal to 0. Then subaverage amounts of expertise on either axis would be negative.
Now, Richard’s claim was that SJ and EJ are in some way far apart from each other. This seems to mean that looking at the two axes you can tell whether that’s because EJ is so so high (compared to EU) or because SJ is so so low (compared to SU). And that was Richard’s question: is the Jowled One a social moron (compared to the rest of us) or an economic super-genius (ditto)?
I claim though that given the premise (which is ONLY that EJ is much much greater than SJ, i.e., that the natures of EU and SU are independent from each other and the textures of the E and S axis are not characterized) these two options are identical. The reason for this is rather subtle: fundamentally, the two *comparisons* are not commensurable. You can compare EJ and EU, and you can compare SJ and SU, but you CAN’T THEN COMPARE THE RESULTS.
Why? Cause if you said, look! SJ-SU is an enormous negative number, and EJ-EU is a small positive number, so Jowly here must be a social moron and not so much an economic super-genius, — someone can then come along and either stretch the E axis (moving EJ way rightward) or shrink the S axis (moving ES rightward), and your conclusion is reversed. (Recall that we assumed the spectra are independent of each other.) The numbers change value if you change the scale on either axis.
But wait, you say — and this is where my point gets interesting. We don’t have to assign simple numbers to EJ and SJ. We can score him by STANDARD DEVIATIONS: if Summers is two standard deviations away from SU and only one away from EU, then he’s more of a social moron than an economic genius.
But here’s my interesting answer: no you can’t. Cause you can’t have a standard deviation without standards. To arrive at these figures, someone would have to devise a norm-referenced test — involving some standard of, say, three-sigma expertise — which a ton of people could take to then come up with the value of the standard deviation to compare Summers with.
So then you say, piece of cake. The only question left is how do you devise this test? What’s a lot of economic knowledge look like (call that expert)? What’s a lot of social moronicism look like (call that Asberger’s — kidding!)? What do we want this curve to look like when we grade the test — 2% experts? .3% experts? Long tails or short tails? And then — you’ve asked Richard’s same question over again! Because the test-design question about how ‘far’ from 0 Summers is on each scale is precisely the same as Richard’s question about how ‘far’ from SU or EU Summers is.
What amount of economic knowledge entails super-geniushood versus geniushood? What amount of social ignorance entails moronicism versus slight ungainliness? If we know only that SJ is negative and EJ is positive, that doesn’t tell you which absolute value is larger. And all you do in kicking the question from absolute numbers to standard deviations is kick the question of standards from the prima facie absolute-number level to the testing-design level. Different kinds of tests will yield different steepness of curve, so whether the social axis is compressed or stretched compared to the economic axis is entirely a matter of taste.
And that’s the same matter of taste Richard was asking us about — do we prefer to think that the societal average in economics is a D, or that Summers’s score on social issues is a D? This is just another version of the question: what should the curve look like in each of these two classes? Because if the class average is going to be an B with a standard deviation of a third of a grade, each D could be real bad. But if the class average is going to be C in one case, or have a higher standard deviation, then we get a different sense of what each grade means. If we pretend that in picking a grade average or a curve shape, SUBJECTIVELY, we’ve done something commensurable between the two types of expertise, we’re begging the question of whether society is much dumber than an economic expert or much smarter than a social non-expert.
Expertise, as I said, is relative. But/and expertises are radically relative TO EACH OTHER. This is why imposing a curve shape in English that’s the same as the curve shape in Engineering would be as pernicious as imposing a grade average.
Does that make sense? I admit this might be wrong somewhere. Warren?
SE
Thought about all this in the shower, which is when he usually designs his lesson plans, but hey, it’s summer
7/29/2008 5:37 pm
Notably too (along the lines of expertises being incommensurable) if I weren’t an English teacher I couldn’t make lesson plans in the shower.
7/29/2008 7:10 pm
Thank you for your long and obviously well thought out response, SE. I think your equation rules out factor X and some common sense, however, for Richard’s entire question was just speculating on *why* Summers seems better “speaking out about economic issues than about social issues generally”. Which is a fact. LS is not offensive on economic issues, and offended many times on social issues. Social issues are not solved with equations. Charm, tact, and wit can not be measured or equated as economy can. And that is the factor X that LS is missing. And dare I say that your equation is as well.
7/29/2008 7:42 pm
I think I understood all that. And I didn’t say Richard’s topic wasn’t worth thinking about, only that the alternatives he offered weren’t really alternatives. They’re the same.
Richard’s main point is that Summers is a very good economist (how good? whatever) and not that good with people stuff (how bad? whatever). He knows that most readers agree with him, so I was encouraging him not to pretend to be curious about the specifics, when he doesn’t really have any doubt about what’s going on there. I think the whole post is mostly a reflexive thing that he hopes will generate more discussion, without really being about anything new.
Commonsensically, yes, you’re right, the issue is simple. Summers is both great at economics and not so great on other things. Which factor is bigger? Not even Richard cares about the answer to that one.
SE
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