The Democratic Dilemma
Posted on November 30th, 2006 in Uncategorized | 6 Comments »
I’ve been taken to task by some posters over the past few days for being tough on the GOP presidential candidates while saying nothing about the Dems. Is it because I’m trying subtly to create negative impressions about the Republicans?
Not reallyâI just don’t think that the GOP has a strong group of candidates for 2008.
But…the Dems have their own problems as well.
The National Journal’s Chuck Todd outlines some of the potential problems with a Hillary Clinton campaign here. They include the fact that allegedly she doesn’t have a base of passionate fansâI’m not so sure about this, actually, that Todd is a man blinds him to the fact that some women really do love herâthe fact that she’s no Bill Clinton (yup), her hawkish position on Iraq (not good in the primary), and her gender (Iowa doesn’t like to vote for women).
Todd’s talking about the Democratic primary, so he doesn’t get into the biggest problem with a national HC campaign: So many people hate her. As Andrew Sullivan points out, she’s the one person who could unite the Republicans. Andrew pleads with her not to run. Don’t waste your time, Andrew. She’s running. She’s never believed what her critics said about her in the past, she’s not about to start now.
That leaves Barack Obama, John Edwards, Tom Vilsack, and possibly Al Gore. Hmmm. This is not a crowd without its negatives either.
For Barack, it’s inexperience, and not just thatâit’s ambivalence. Every time I read something about Obama, he emphasizes how it’s almost accidental that he’s in politics, and his wife hates it, and if she wanted him to he would quit tomorrow. If this is genuine at all, it strongly conflicts with his obvious ambition. (Obama cooperated with a profile for Elle magazine lately; politicians don’t talk to Elle unless they’re running for something.)
I have a general rule about people trying to be president: They have to really, really want it. Bill Clinton, the Bushes, Reagan, Carter, Nixonâthese men were burning with ambition. Ambivalence may play well in the press, but ultimately the voters want someone who wants the job. They don’t want someone who talks about how he could quit tomorrow.
Then there’s Edwards, who I like very much, but I think he hasn’t helped himself in the past four years. Tough enough to run for president from the Senate, which is not, in modern times, a very successful launching pad. (Not since 1960.) But where has Edwards been the past four years? Well, he wrote a book which is so cheesy he has to be running for president. And, on the one hand, he directed a center for the study of poverty, but he also joined the Fortress Investment Group, a massive and secretive hedge fund with about $26 billion in assets.
As you know, I think candidates for higher office and hedge funds just don’t mix. (That means you, Chelsea Clinton.) A trial lawyer who works for a hedge fund? That’s a double whammy. You think Bobby Kennedy would ever have gone to work for a hedge fund?
Tom Vilsack. Who? Well, he’s the governor of Iowa, but yes, exactly. (I do like that he has a v-blog, though. Not to mention videos on You-Tube and pages on Facebook and MySpace.)
That leaves…Al Gore. In my opinion, Gore could win this thing. He’s got gravitas, he’s been useful since 2000 leading a campaign to raise awareness about the most important problem in the world, and he’s a much less partisan figure than Hillary. He’s never been a great campaigner, but from all I hear, he’s been terrific over the past years when speaking to audiences about global warming. I think Hillary Clinton is impressive and underrated, but Gore would be a far more viable candidate than she.
The only problem is, Gore really hasn’t shown many signs that he wants to run. Democrats should hope that he does.
6 Responses
11/30/2006 1:57 pm
I’m no John Edwards fan, but I have to ask, why do politics and hedge funds not mix? Why should working for a hedge fund be any different than working in any other part of the financial industry? I think you may not understand what hedge funds actually do. And, in any case, I think it is always important for politicians to have some — any — experience out of Washington. After all, being an arbitrageur and junk bond trader at Goldman did not hurt the career of Robert Rubin.
11/30/2006 2:10 pm
Rubin never ran for anything, and if he had, he would have lost. His political career choices reflect the elitism of his financial careerâTreasury, Harvard Corporation, etc.
I understand reasonably well what hedge funds do. My argument is that making that kind of money doesn’t go over well with the vast majority of voters, especially Democratic voters.
There are exceptionsâJon Corzine in New Jersey, for exampleâbut you can’t pull off a “I’m sticking up for the little guy” campaign when you’re making hedge-fund money. It was plausible, just barely, for Edwards to adopt this pose as a trial lawyer. Working for Fortress? No way.
11/30/2006 2:41 pm
Okay, I see your point. Although, I would argue “standing up for the little guy” campaigns don’t work anyway, or at least they only take you so far. No one thinks they’re a little guy. Standing up for the middle class (and the center it represents) is what wins you presidential elections.
Also, you ignore two significant Dems who are potential 08 candidates and who, because they are outside of DC have been largely ignored by the punitocracy: Bill Richardson and Wes Clark. Both have strong foreign policy backgrounds, but are not hawks a la Hillary. And they are both pretty liberal, or liberal enough to appeal to Dem primary voters. Clark obviously stank as a candidate last time, but he learned a lot. And Richardson — a governor from a purple state with strong foreign policy creds, who is Hispanic to boot. What’s not to like about that picture? In any case, both have been underestimated and foolishly ignored.
11/30/2006 4:08 pm
Clark has a little too much of the thousand-yard stare to appeal to the non-military crowd. And Richardson, hasn’t his governorship been a littled dogged by small scandals-possibly ones that never really panned out? And I’m not talking about all of the notorious motorcade speeding tickets. I’m not just fishing here-I wonder if anybody can confirm?
11/30/2006 7:40 pm
Good job, Richard, in presenting the possible Democratic candidates fairly, and with backup for your opinions. And you didn’t miss Bill Richardson or Wes Clark.
I like your point about presidents who have won need to have really, really, really wanted the job, and we don’t yet know if Barak Obama has conviction there. But it would be nice if he did - or shows that he does.
Let’s hope that Al Gore doesn’t run, and I don’t agree that he is more viable than Hillary, even w/all her Republican haters. Al Gore isn’t loved by many people, and he feels like a has-been, doesn’t he? Hillary is a contender, she’s an excellent politican (not that that’s a good thing), and it will be interesting to see the effect her nomination has on voters and other candidates - e.g., does it solidify the Republican vote? I’d kinda like to see what happens w/her as a Democratic candidate, but I would hate it if she won the election.
Finally, I don’t think you have it right that making gobs of money automatically excludes you from success w/voters - yes, Jon Corzine is an excellent example, as is our very own Mayor Bloomberg. That said, I wish it did, b/c John Edwards is just too sticky sweet, slick and just plain tan.
11/30/2006 7:46 pm
Good job, Richard, critiquing the Democratic candidates. And you didn’t miss Bill Richardson or Wes Clark. But I think you have it wrong that making gobs of money automatically excludes you from success w/voters… yes, look at Jon Corzine, and how about our very own Mayor Bloomberg?
I like what you said about presidents who have won have each really, really, really wanted to be elected, and I am just not sure Barak Obama has that conviction. But it would be great if he did - or starts to.
Hillary is a contender - and such a good politician (not that that’s a good thing), much more so than Al Gore. I mean, isn’t Al Gore a has-been, already?? It certainly doesn’t feel like he has “gravitas.” It would be interesting to see the effect a Hillary ticket would have on voters - I’d be interested to see if she really does solidify the Republican vote. I’d hate for her to actually win and become president, but I think she might get the Democratic nod.