So Ned Lamont has narrowly eked out a victory over Joe Lieberman. The difference was about 3.5 percentage points.
I don’t think Lieberman can take much positive away from the tightness of the race. He’s an incumbent U.S. senator, and beating a Senate incumbent in a primary is immensely difficult and almost never happens. The senator has advantages of money (largely negated here), media exposure, experience in campaigning, infrastructure, party support, and so on. He should win handily.
What’s important is that, even with all that, Ned Lamont beat Lieberman.
Here a few thoughts on the victory.
First, the race has been framed as a referendum on the war. That’s true, but it is insufficient. Several other factors mattered as well.
1) Again and again, Connecticut voters said that they thought that Lieberman had lost touch with them. It’s true; he did. (Which is, frankly, a tough thing to do in a state the size of Connecticut, a 45-minute flight from Washington.) The proof of that is how much Lieberman was beloved by inside-the-Beltway pundits. When those folks love you, you’ve spent too much time at fancy luncheons with them and not enough time at diners with your constituents.
A corollary: Lieberman’s personality has grown tiresome over the yearsâthe constant moralizing, the holier-than-thou tone, the aura of self-anointed gravitas. Comopare that to his counterpart, Senator Chris Dodd, who isâor at least used to beâa boozer and a poonhound. But he’s a good legislator and a good senator, and people like him. Chris Dodd isn’t going to lecture anyone. Joe Lieberman, it sometimes seemed, did little else.
2) Lamont has been portrayed as a lightweight rich guy riding the wave of anti-war sentiment, propelled along by bloggers. This overlooks the fact that the guy ran a very smartâand most important, mistake-freeâcampaign. Can you think of a Lamont gaffe? I can’t either. That’s extremely rare for a political novice. Lamont even held his own in a televised debate with a guy known as a ferocious debater (except, perhaps, when it comes to debating Republicans like Dick Cheney). Despite the fact that the national press seemed determined to portray him as an empty suit, Lamont fleshed out his personna and his platform over the course of the campaign, making it much harder for Lieberman to eviscerate him, which the senator was surely dying to do.
3) Lamont has also been faulted for being a Greenwich preppie, but in fact, his WASPiness is not an inherent political liability and may even be a plus. In the best WASP tradition, Lamont went to good schools, made a lot of money, gave away a lot of money, volunteered, raised what appears to be a close and healthy family, became deeply engaged in public life, and ran for public office in a state known for electing thoughtful politicians. (When I was a kid, the governor of Connecticut was an impressive woman named Ella Grasso, the first woman elected governor in the U.S.) So the fact that he’s a prepsterâan object of skepticism elsewhereâdoesn’t really matter in Connecticut, where we’ve seen this sort of thing before, and realize that sometimes these people make fine public servants. If that’s bland or lightweight, more of our politicians should be that way.
4) The New York Times reports that Republican National Committee chair Ken Mehlman “is planning to give a speech in Columbus, Ohio this morning in which he will use Mr. Lamontâs victory to portray Democrats as a party weak on national defense, and his affiliation with blogs to present the Democrats as captive to the extreme wing of the party.”
I think this is a huge mistake for Mehlman, in the sense that he’s tying his party more closely to an unpopular war. Lieberman’s loss doesn’t mean that the Democrats are weak on national security; it means that people really, really don’t like the Iraq war. And that’s going to hurt Republicans and politicians like Joe Lieberman.
5) Lieberman says now that he’ll run as an independent. I would be surprised if he sticks to that, but if anyone would, it’s Lieberman. Why? Because his ambition knows no bounds. It is that ambition that got him into trouble in the first placeâthat sense of unceasing opportunism that Lieberman always tried to portray as principles, but was, in fact, a desire to cozy up to power even when that power (Bush/Cheney) was subverting American principles of justice and decency.
Lieberman has sounded in recent weeks like a classic Washington type: the politician who has grown so accustomed to the pleasure and privileges of power that he can not believe the voters might actually reject him. The logic, the inevitability, the rightness of his position is so self-evident to him, he can not believe anyone else might disagree. He is in shock, a state of denial that reminds me of what people supposedly say they feel when having a heart attack: How could you do this to me?
But already, there are signs that powerful people want Lieberman to call it a day. John Edwards, Evan Bayh, and Hillary Clintonâmoderate Democrats and presidential contenders allâquickly telephoned Ned Lamont to congratulate him. In Washington, people run from a loser; they want to avoid the contagion.
If Lieberman really cares about his party, as he claims to, he’ll abandon his independent bid, and fast. If he doesn’t, it will be apparent that the only real rationale for his campaign is pure, unadulterated, overweening, out of control ambition.