Why McCain Might Win
Posted on May 19th, 2008 in Uncategorized | 5 Comments »
In the Times, columnist Bill Kristol lists three positive signs for those who want to be hopeful about John McCain.
1) Obama lost West Virginia, a state whose voters allegedly resemble those of Pennsylvania and Ohio, by 41 percentage points.
2) The California Supreme Court’s decision legalizing gay marriage will mobilize conservative voters.
3) Obama loses when he gets into a prolonged discussion about foreign policy.
The Republican party as a whole might be in dire straits, Kristol says, but there remains the possibility, and the hope, of “McCain exceptionalism.”
I find this unconvincing, myself—partly because of two other stories in the Times, one about McCain’s relative difficulty in fundraising and one reporting on Obama speaking to a crowd of 75, 000 (!) in Oregon.
More than that, I keep going back to the right track/wrong track numbers (Do you think the country is on the right track or the wrong track?), which are now at historic “wrong track” highs in the 80-plus percent range.
What I do expect, as the Republicans grow desperate, is for this election to get increasingly ugly. The question is, will smear tactics work, as they often do? Or will Americans realize that this time we have to hold ourselves to higher standards and not allow our presidential election to be Swift-Boated?
5 Responses
5/19/2008 7:53 am
There are several other reasons to find this unconvincing.
1) It’s by Bill Kristol.
2) None of the three arguments { a — Obama lost in WV; b — gay marriage will mobilize conservatives; c — Obama loses foreign policy debates with McCain) holds up.
a) Losing to Hillary is not losing to McCain.
b) No it won’t.
c) No he doesn’t.
3) It’s by Bill Kristol.
4) McCain is not exceptional, not nearly enough, not by a long shot, and Obama is already welding his name onto Bush’s. He’s a very, very smart tactician (witness the Edwards endorsement timing).
5) Did you notice that this piece you seem to have taken somewhat seriously is by BILL KRISTOL?
Standing Eagle
5/19/2008 9:05 am
He said he found the article unconvincing, didn’t he, SE? But someone else is noting the CA gay marriage thought RB had.
5/19/2008 9:21 am
That’s because the fake meme about gay marriage being a big factor in Republican success in 2004 is fully implanted in the lizard brains of journalists. They don’t need neurons for this thought, it’s gangliar.
5/19/2008 9:47 am
While I’ve said it before, McCain will be the dark horse. Let’s just see who he picks for VP. I think that will up the stakes.
5/19/2008 2:43 pm
What do you think ‘up the stakes’ means? That might shed light on what you think ‘dark horse’ means, which in turn might explain what you could possibly be trying to say.