Shots In The Dark
Friday, January 04, 2008
  An E-Mail from Mitt Romney
Since I wrote an article about Mitt Romney for 02138 a few months back, I'm on the e-mail list for his campaign. Today I got one that seems worth sharing.

Dear richard,

As you’ve likely seen by now, we finished a strong second place in Iowa** and the mainstream press has been quick to call this devastating.

Well, I’m here to tell you that just like in the Olympics, winning the silver in the first event does not mean you’re not going to come back and win the gold in the final event. And we’re going to win the presidential nomination, by pulling together.

I’m humbled by what you have done so far. Now, the action you take today could determine the course of history!
Please Invite 5 friends to join Team Mitt. It’s going to take every mouthpiece and volunteer possible for victory. Someone from my staff will follow-up with all new Team Mitt members immediately.

Call a friend, forward them this email, stop by their home or office and ask for just one more contribution to help us win New Hampshire and continue this campaign to the ultimate finish – the White House at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.

Finally, help 5 friends learn more about me with a personalized phone message. Just use our new phone messaging tool. I’ll even record a customized voicemail greeting for your cell phone if you’d like. Imagine the surprise your friends will get when they call.
Remember – Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush also finished second in Iowa and went on to win the Republican nomination, and I will too. I’m the only candidate who is competitive in all of the early primary or caucus states – South Carolina, Michigan, Nevada, Florida…and of course New Hampshire.

You know as well as I do that Iowa represents the beginning of the process, and we’re on our way to New Hampshire to win – with your help.

* This is the definition of spin. No one other than Mitt Romney or someone working for him would call that a "strong second place." He was ten points behind a guy whom he exponentially outspent.....

I do think his point about Bush and Reagan is worth remembering, though....
 
Comments:
Especially the 1988 comparison. Huckabee seems very similar to Robertson (evangelical, won Iowa based on evangelical vote. Lost everything else).
 
Romney is a desperate desperate man. He knows what no one else seems to realize: he can't win New Hampshire. Even if he wins there's no way he can outperform expectations there, and in the early primaries outperforming expectations is the definition of winning. Romney can only avoid losing in New Hampshire, and the desperate tone of his e-mail as well as his appearance with Chris Wallace last night suggest to me that he is not well positioned, psychically, to do so.

You heard it here first: Huckabee shocks the world in NH and is a juggernaut from there on out. Who can stop him?

If anyone has to be the GOP nominee for President (and unfortunately I think SOMEone does) I am very glad for it to be the total clown with no political instincts, who is acknowledged universally to have no credibility in world affairs, and who is moreover apparently, unlike every other Republican, a decent human being. (Note that even Romney had that horrible episode with the family dog.)

Now that is a Republican nominee Standing Eagle can live with. Hell, he can stay in my house while he campaigns if he wants.

Standing Eagle
 
Unless a bunch of evangelicals suddenly relocate to New Hampshire, Huckabee doesn't have a prayer there. Right now, the online betting markets have McCain as a lukewarm favorite to win the Republican nomination (about 2-1), whereas Huckabee is the fourth choice (behind Rudy and Mitt) at 8-1. Hillary and Obama are both about even money to win the Democratic nomination.
 
I'll give you five to one AGAINST anyone but Huckabee winning the nomination.

Hell, I'll give you ten to one.

Prognosticating Eagle
 
SE,

So you're saying you think there's a greater than 90% chance that Huckabee will get the Republican nomination? Lets just say that odds are not your forte.
 
I'd peg it at 97%.
 
Not only will Hucabee win the nomination, he will win the election. You Cambridge liberals are so out of tune with this country!
 
huckabee does not have enough money to make it through super tuesday.

this is a business and there isn't enough working capital for adds and travel. new hampshire is small. a candidate can drive around the state in a day. what comes next requires money, staff, logistics and experienced field operations- do really think huckabee has that? or am i getting too practical for the cambridge types?

hey, which online odds are you looking at? the brit's usually call it right.
 
"Team Mitt"??? Ouch.
 
"It’s going to take every mouthpiece..."

What an odd choice of words-- do Mittheads really see glory in being a parrot for their candidate?
 
Huckabee will *not* win N.H.

McCain will. Huck will be happy to win second or third there - second would be as good as a win for him.

While I think the press and some Dems are setting themselves up for problems later by wishing for Huckabee (he won't be quite the sacrificial lamb), I'm holding out hope that other primary states realize that McCain is the only candidate who can win the big one.

Put me down for $10 against, S.E.
 
You're on.
 
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Name: Richard Bradley
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