Getting off Scoot Free
So
Scooter Libby won't be going to jail. I am more intrigued than outraged. Why did Bush commute Libby's sentence?
Let's assume that he doesn't think Libby deserves to go to jail. From a political perspective, that's irrelevant. Why make a decision that he knows will be politically volatile?
Two theories, I think.
One is that he just doesn't give a damn anymore about his approval ratings or what he can accomplish in his last 18 months, he's going to do what he thinks is right. And if he can't get the immigration bill—which
is right—passed in the Senate, he's going to use the powers of the presidency to do what he can unilaterally.
The other is that there is a political upside to this pardon. (As opposed to, say, Bill Clinton's
Marc Rich fiasco.)
Liberals, of course, will be furious, but liberals already hate Bush about as much as they can. It's the conservatives Bush cares about, and in recent months, they've been falling away from him. Pardoning Libby will, at least temporarily, energize the conservative base.
In other words, by polarizing the electorate, Bush can gain support with the only people left who might consider supporting him.
As irritating as it is to think thusly, from this perspective, I can't really blame Bush for the pardon. It would be nice if he governed from the center and tried to do things that were good for the country—but it's probably too late for that. The failure of the immigration bill showed that that this a thankless task, one that may weaken him without actually achieving anything.
So what's left? Fire up the base, baby, and smoke 'em if you got 'em.