Whither Larry?
On his blog, David Warsh has
an interesting column on Larry Summers' future.
Here's one paragraph that seemed particularly on target:
Probably he is finished in government. The meteoric rise that began with the Reagan CEA under Feldstein, that led to becoming chief economic adviser in the presidential campaign of Michael S. Dukakis, then to the chief economist's job at the World Bank under George H.W. Bush, and, finally, to the Clinton Treasury Department, may be over. His role in the Shleifer affair makes it unlikely that Summers ever again can be confirmed by the Senate.
Is this right, or is it a reflection of Warsh's passion about matters Shleifer? I was going to say that Republicans might use the Shleifer matter to torpedo any Summers nomination...but then decided that these days, Republicans like Summers more than liberals do, and probably care less about the corruption issue. In fact, it seems likely to be Democrats who'd raise objections to Summers, not just because of Shleifer but because of his insults to various Democratic constituences, primarily women and African-Americans.
So, yes, it's hard to imagine Hillary Clinton inviting Summers back into government. Al Gore? Not a chance. Who'd want a man who shuffles along, surrounded by controversy wherever he goes, like Pigpen and his cloud of dust?
That leaves two alternatives, according to Warsh:
Wall Street, with which Summers gained more than a passing acquaintance during his years at the Treasury Department, and international economics, of which he has become a distinguished practitioner.
The latter could include being a foundation head or coming back to teach at Harvard.
Increasingly I think that Summers will come back to Harvard. He has a new house in Brookline, a wife with tenure, and a stepdaughter who's a Harvard sophomore (I think).
More than that, the Wall Street option seems, if one truly considers it, unlikely. Yes, I've heard the rumors that Bob Rubin will hire him at Citigroup—a move which would, I think, humiliate Summers, as it would be the third straight job he's gotten as a result of Rubin's patronage—or that he'll go to Goldman Sachs.
But what would he actually do at those places? Take meetings? We all know how that goes. Make connections in foreign lands? Perhaps—but a lot of people in those foreign lands don't really like Larry Summers, as
Joe Stiglitz will tell you. Crunch numbers? I suppose. But lots of people can do that...and as mentioned before, what Wall Street firm wants the inevitable publicity? What hedge fund?
No, the best bet right now is for Summers to come back to Harvard. Warsh mentions the business school, and I think that's right. It's in Allston, which has a physical separation from the Yard and Mass Hall and a symbolic importance to Summers. It was one of the few places where Summers had a significant reservoir of support. It would allow Summers to engage in consulting and speechifying, and make more money, which he would like to do. And Summers would certainly be a demanding and challenging classroom instructor.
Summers could also write a book—something in
the Freakanomics vein, meaning smart and contrarian, but in a constructive way. Problem is, he can't write, as a perusal of the speeches on his website will tell you. (Not that he wrote them—but that's the point.) Maybe he could work with the guy who co-wrote Freakanomics.
(If I were a newspaper editor, come to think of it, I'd want to have lunch with Summers and broach the topic of his writing a column. If Summers really were to let his hair down, relax a bit, and write with the flair, intelligence and originality he shows during question-and-answer periods, he could make a very fine newspaper columnist. His provocative nature could be a perfect fit for that medium. He'd certainly be more interesting than, say,
John Tierney.)
The problem here is that Summers would almost surely think such a popular book beneath him, and want to produce a tome on foreign policy and international relations, like something that Henry Kissinger would write to be discussed at
the Council on Foreign Relations. Ho-hum.
Warsh, however, disagrees with me, writing...
Larry Summers remains a very big frog; there is no doubt at all about that: the question is what kind of pond he will choose. Granted, a university like Harvard contains multitudes. A close look at the bitterness of the negotiation that in February compelled his resignation, however, suggests that neither Professors Summers nor Shleifer, nor, for that matter, Harvard Corporation member Rubin, will remain connected to Harvard for more than a year or so.
Largely because I'm unconvinced of the viability of other options, or Summers' sense that they are insufficiently elevated for him, I think Summers will head to HBS in a year, with perhaps a joint position at the Kennedy School.
