Will Summers Resign?
This time, I think, yes.
Here's why:
1) Summers survived one leadership crisis a year ago. It seems unlikely that he can weather another—or even that he would want to.
It's just a matter of time before he starts chatting with David Gergen about how to spin a possible departure. (Here's a hint: Call up Bill Kristol, the Weekly Standard editor whom you brought to lecture at Harvard, and fume about "left-wing radicals on the faculty"....)
2) I think Summers will resign rather than face an alumni lawsuit based on the premise that he and Bob Rubin knew of Andrei Shleifer's illegal wheelings and dealings when they were at the Treasury Department. Summers' reputation rests upon the impression of success surrounding his time at Treasury; he will not risk the loss of that reputation.
More: If Bob Rubin feels that his own cleaner-than-thou image is threatened—thanks to Summers, it's already acquired a couple dings—he will withdraw his support for Summers and Summers will have no choice but to resign. The two men are friends and colleagues, but ultimately, nothing matters more to Rubin than his reputation. If he has to, he'll cut Summers loose.
3) I keep thinking about the wedding presents. I wrote some weeks back about how odd it was that, when Larry Summers and Lisa New got married, they registered for gifts at Williams-Sonoma (and perhaps other places, for all I know). Quite a few posters said that I was being ungracious, but it nonetheless struck me as odd that a couple who lived in Harvard's presidential mansion would commit the faux pas of asking for wedding gifts for a mutual second marriage....
Why would anyone who lives at Elmwood and plans to live there for some time ask for wine glasses and an ice cream maker and the like?
4) The alums—all of them, not just the ones who may sue. Surely they are getting fed up by now.
5) Yale and Stanford...does anyone think that they've been fiddling while Harvard burns?
Here's my prediction: A resignation in the summer, if not before. Larry Summers likes to bury bad news in the dog days of summer. Shortly after, Bob Rubin will resign from the Harvard Corporation. (If he did it at the same time, he'd be admitting that he and Summers are linked, a concession Rubin will not want to make.)
Followed by the return of Derek Bok for a year—after all
his eloquent writing on universities, Bok could hardly say no when his comes calling; plus, Bok has played the healer role before, when he first became president—and then the appointment of a new president.
